The Monty Hall problem is a terrific little example of how intuition, especially the intuition of those trained in statistics, can go horribly wrong. It appears from recent calculations of the economist, M. Keith Chen that some of the most famous experiments in psychology may have fallen victim to the same logical fallacy.
The Full Monty (Hall)
May 1st, 2008 Chris Lloyd Posted in Cognition, Health Science, Probability, Research/Theory 8 Comments »
Fat Stats
February 28th, 2008 Chris Lloyd Posted in Health Science, Public Interest 10 Comments »
Do obese people impose a disproportionate cost on the health system? Being over-weight is certainly strongly associated with high blood pressure and heart attack, and these diseases certainly impose high costs. At first glance this appears to imply that such people cost more. Can you spot the flaw?